2026 Forecast
Seats projected for each party, based on the consensus of public race ratings.
Governor
Dems +1 to +4 seats vs. the 24 they hold now
Kalshi has no market on this. Polymarket asks which party holds more governorships.
Early and absentee voting so far
Party of the voters who have already returned ballots in the 7 states where we can count 2024 and 2022 at the same point, added together and compared with those years at the same number of days before Election Day in each state. It shows who has voted, not how they voted, and these states are not a sample of the country.
- vs. 2024 Dem +5.4 · Rep −7.3 · Ind +1.9 pts of ballots
- vs. 2022 Dem −3.7 · Rep −2.4 · Ind +6.1 pts of ballots
Ballots returned by the voter’s registered party, counted at the same number of days before Election Day in each state. Sources for every state Pennsylvania Department of State mail ballot data on data.pa.gov, North Carolina State Board of Elections, absentee and early voting data, Maine Secretary of State, statewide absentee voter data file, Iowa Secretary of State, absentee ballot statistics, Clark County Election Department, mail ballot data, civicAPI, compiled from state and county election offices, Colorado Secretary of State ballot returns for 2022 and 2024, and civicAPI for 2026, Maryland State Board of Elections mail-in sent and returned report, with 2022 and 2024 from Internet Archive copies, Florida Division of Elections, vote-by-mail and early voting reports.
See the map and every state, party by party and day by day →
Daily update
Sunday, October 25 · updated 6:34 AM PT
Bottom line The House moved toward Democrats with Democrats +1, toss-ups −1; the Senate and the governors’ races are unchanged.
House Moved toward Democrats. Democrats rose from 229 to 230 and toss-ups fell from 11 to 10. Majority math Democrats are 12 seats above the 218 needed, compared with 11 above before, and Republicans are 23 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 18, Dem-leaning seats +5, Rep-leaning −1, toss-ups −4, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 18 there was no net change.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 25, Republicans 22, toss-ups 3. Over the past week since Oct 18, Dem-leaning seats +1, Rep-leaning 0, toss-ups −1, a net shift toward Democrats.
What early voting is telling us
Democrats are ahead of 2024, but behind 2022 in the early vote. They are 47% of the 3.9M ballots in the 7 states we can compare, +5.4 points on 2024 and −3.7 on 2022, and ballots are running 27% above 2022.
Against 2022, Democrats are behind in the House toss-ups, behind in the Senate toss-ups, and behind in the governor toss-ups.
Betting markets
Prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown as the chance each party wins. A read on what traders expect, not our forecast.
House Kalshi has Democrats 90% to win the House; Polymarket has Democrats 92% to win the House.
Senate Kalshi has Democrats 63% to win the Senate; Polymarket has Democrats 67% to win the Senate.
Governors Polymarket has Democrats 76% to win more governorships, down 4.8 points,.
Toss-ups 21 have a market. Traders favor Democrats in 14, Republicans in 7. The biggest moves since the last update are PA-01, Democrats up 4 points to 45%.
What drove the changes
House OH-07 moved from Toss-up to Lean D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after The Economist moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D and RealClearPolitics moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 2 new polls and 12 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Previous updates
Saturday, October 24
Bottom line The House moved toward Democrats with Democrats +1, toss-ups −1 and the governors’ races moved toward Democrats with Democrats +1, toss-ups −1; the Senate is unchanged.
House Moved toward Democrats. Democrats rose from 228 to 229 and toss-ups fell from 12 to 11. Majority math Democrats are 11 seats above the 218 needed, compared with 10 above before, and Republicans are 23 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 17, Dem-leaning seats +4, Rep-leaning −1, toss-ups −3, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 17 there was no net change.
Governors Moved toward Democrats. Democrats rose from 24 to 25 and toss-ups fell from 4 to 3. Over the past week since Oct 17, Dem-leaning seats +1, Rep-leaning 0, toss-ups −1, a net shift toward Democrats.
What early voting is telling us
Democrats are ahead of 2024, but behind 2022 in the early vote. They are 48% of the 3.8M ballots in the 7 states we can compare, +5.3 points on 2024 and −3.9 on 2022, and ballots are running 27% above 2022.
Against 2022, Democrats are behind in the House toss-ups, behind in the Senate toss-ups, and behind in the governor toss-ups.
Betting markets
Prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown as the chance each party wins. A read on what traders expect, not our forecast.
House Kalshi has Democrats 91% to win the House; Polymarket has Democrats 92% to win the House, down 0.5 points,.
Senate Kalshi has Democrats 66% to win the Senate, down 0.7 points,; Polymarket has Democrats 68% to win the Senate.
Governors Polymarket has Democrats 78% to win more governorships, down 5.9 points,.
Toss-ups 22 have a market. Traders favor Democrats in 15, Republicans in 7. The biggest moves since the last update are ME-02, Democrats down 2 points to 45%.
What drove the changes
House AK-AL moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Decision Desk HQ moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R and FPO moved its rating from Lean R to Toss-up. NC-01 moved from Toss-up to Lean D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after Decision Desk HQ moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D.
Governors Ohio Governor moved from Toss-up to Lean D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after Cook Political Report moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 20 new polls and 5 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Friday, October 23
Bottom line The House moved toward Democrats with Democrats +1, Republicans −1; the Senate and the governors’ races are unchanged.
House Moved toward Democrats. Democrats rose from 227 to 228 and Republicans fell from 196 to 195. Majority math Democrats are 10 seats above the 218 needed, compared with 9 above before, and Republicans are 23 seats short of the 218 needed, compared with 22 short before. Over the past week since Oct 16, Dem-leaning seats +3, Rep-leaning −1, toss-ups −2, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 16 there was no net change.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4. Over the past week since Oct 16 there was no net change.
What early voting is telling us
Democrats are ahead of 2024, but behind 2022 in the early vote. They are 48% of the 3.4M ballots in the 7 states we can compare, +5.3 points on 2024 and −4.3 on 2022, and ballots are running 29% above 2022.
Against 2022, Democrats are ahead in the House toss-ups, behind in the Senate toss-ups, and behind in the governor toss-ups.
Betting markets
Prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown as the chance each party wins. A read on what traders expect, not our forecast.
House Kalshi has Democrats 91% to win the House; Polymarket has Democrats 93% to win the House.
Senate Kalshi has Democrats 68% to win the Senate, up 1.0 points,; Polymarket has Democrats 68% to win the Senate.
Governors Polymarket has Democrats 74% to win more governorships, down 6.4 points,.
Toss-ups 24 have a market. Traders favor Democrats in 17, Republicans in 7. The biggest moves since the last update are NC-01, Democrats up 7 points to 81%, MI-04, Democrats down 5 points to 63%, and IA-02, Democrats up 4 points to 65%.
What drove the changes
House KY-06 moved from Lean R to Toss-up, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Cook Political Report moved its rating from Lean R to Toss-up and Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Likely R to Toss-up. CO-04 moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Cook Political Report moved its rating from Safe R to Lean R. NC-11 moved from Toss-up to Lean D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after Cook Political Report moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D, FPO moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D, and Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Toss-up to Likely D. In new polling, Emerson College in a poll from Oct 14 found Ager 56%, Balkcom 43%. NY-21 moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Split Ticket moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R and Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R. TX-28 moved from Lean D to Likely D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after Cook Political Report moved its rating from Lean D to Likely D and Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Lean D to Likely D.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 19 new polls and 66 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Thursday, October 22
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 227, Republicans 196, toss-ups 12. Majority math Democrats are 9 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 22 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 15, Dem-leaning seats +2, Rep-leaning −2, toss-ups 0, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 15 there was no net change.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4. Over the past week since Oct 15 there was no net change.
What early voting is telling us
Democrats are ahead of 2024, but behind 2022 in the early vote. They are 49% of the 3.1M ballots in the 7 states we can compare, +5.2 points on 2024 and −4.4 on 2022, and ballots are running 34% above 2022.
Against 2022, Democrats are ahead in the House toss-ups, behind in the Senate toss-ups, and behind in the governor toss-ups.
Betting markets
Prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown as the chance each party wins. A read on what traders expect, not our forecast.
House Kalshi has Democrats 91% to win the House; Polymarket has Democrats 93% to win the House, up 1.0 points,.
Senate Kalshi has Democrats 67% to win the Senate; Polymarket has Democrats 68% to win the Senate, up 1.0 points,.
Governors Polymarket has Democrats 74% to win more governorships, down 3.5 points,.
Toss-ups 24 have a market. Traders favor Democrats in 18, Republicans in 5 and see 1 as even. The biggest moves since the last update are MT-01, Democrats up 10 points to 50%, MI-04, Democrats up 9 points to 69%, and OH-07, Democrats up 6 points to 89%.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 13 new polls and 3 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Wednesday, October 21
Bottom line The House moved toward Democrats with Democrats +2, toss-ups −2; the Senate and the governors’ races are unchanged.
House Moved toward Democrats. Democrats rose from 225 to 227 and toss-ups fell from 14 to 12. Majority math Democrats are 9 seats above the 218 needed, compared with 7 above before, and Republicans are 22 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 14, Dem-leaning seats +2, Rep-leaning −2, toss-ups 0, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 14 there was no net change.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4. Over the past week since Oct 14 there was no net change.
What early voting is telling us
Democrats are ahead of 2024, but behind 2022 in the early vote. They are 50% of the 2.8M ballots in the 7 states we can compare, +4.9 points on 2024 and −4.5 on 2022, and ballots are running 37% above 2022.
Against 2022, Democrats are ahead in the House toss-ups, behind in the Senate toss-ups, and behind in the governor toss-ups.
Betting markets
Prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown as the chance each party wins. A read on what traders expect, not our forecast.
House Kalshi has Democrats 91% to win the House, up 0.6 points,; Polymarket has Democrats 92% to win the House.
Senate Kalshi has Democrats 67% to win the Senate, up 1.6 points,; Polymarket has Democrats 67% to win the Senate, up 2.0 points,.
Governors Polymarket has Democrats 71% to win more governorships, down 5.7 points,.
Toss-ups 24 have a market. Traders favor Democrats in 18, Republicans in 6. The biggest moves since the last update are MI-04, Democrats up 8 points to 60%, VA-01, Democrats down 8 points to 58%, and Nevada Governor, Democrats up 8 points to 66%.
What drove the changes
House MI-10 moved from Toss-up to Lean D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after Decision Desk HQ moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D. PA-08 moved from Toss-up to Lean D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after RealClearPolitics moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D.
Senate South Carolina Senate moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Cook Political Report moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R, Silver Bulletin moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R, and NBC moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 35 new polls and 36 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Tuesday, October 20
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 196, toss-ups 14. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 22 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 13, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −2, toss-ups +2, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 13, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −1, toss-ups +1, a net shift toward Democrats.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4. Over the past week since Oct 13 there was no net change.
What early voting is telling us
Democrats are ahead of 2024, but behind 2022 in the early vote. They are 55% of the 1.6M ballots in the 5 states we can compare, +8.5 points on 2024 and −2.7 on 2022, and ballots are running 19% above 2022.
Against 2022, Democrats are ahead in the House toss-ups, level in the Senate toss-ups, and behind in the governor toss-ups.
Betting markets
Prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown as the chance each party wins. A read on what traders expect, not our forecast.
House Kalshi has Democrats 90% to win the House; Polymarket has Democrats 92% to win the House.
Senate Kalshi has Democrats 64% to win the Senate; Polymarket has Democrats 64% to win the Senate.
Governors Polymarket has Democrats 67% to win more governorships.
Toss-ups 26 have a market. Traders favor Democrats in 18, Republicans in 6 and see 2 as even.
What drove the changes
House NV-02 moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after The Economist moved its rating from Lean R to Toss-up.
Senate South Carolina Senate moved from Lean R to Likely R, a shift toward Republicans that makes the race less competitive.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 13 new polls and 12 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Monday, October 19
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 196, toss-ups 14. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 22 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 12, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −2, toss-ups +2, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 12, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −1, toss-ups +1, a net shift toward Democrats.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4. Over the past week since Oct 12 there was no net change.
What early voting is telling us
Elsewhere in the tight races, 2 new polls and 0 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Sunday, October 18
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 196, toss-ups 14. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 22 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 12, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −2, toss-ups +2, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 12, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −1, toss-ups +1, a net shift toward Democrats.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4. Over the past week since Oct 12 there was no net change.
What early voting is telling us
Elsewhere in the tight races, 6 new polls and 11 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Saturday, October 17
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 196, toss-ups 14. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 22 seats short of the 218 needed. Over the past week since Oct 12, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −2, toss-ups +2, a net shift toward Democrats.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed. Over the past week since Oct 12, Dem-leaning seats 0, Rep-leaning −1, toss-ups +1, a net shift toward Democrats.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4. Over the past week since Oct 12 there was no net change.
What early voting is telling us
Elsewhere in the tight races, 9 new polls and 0 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Friday, October 16
Bottom line The House moved toward Democrats with Republicans −2, toss-ups +2; the Senate and the governors’ races are unchanged.
House Moved toward Democrats. Republicans fell from 198 to 196 and toss-ups rose from 12 to 14. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 22 seats short of the 218 needed, compared with 20 short before.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4.
What early voting is telling us
What drove the changes
House ME-02 moved from Lean R to Toss-up, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Inside Elections moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R. MT-01 moved from Lean R to Toss-up, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Cook Political Report moved its rating from Lean R to Toss-up.
Senate South Carolina Senate moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Inside Elections moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R. New Hampshire Senate moved from Lean D to Likely D, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race less competitive, after Inside Elections moved its rating from Toss-up to Lean D.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 8 new polls and 19 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Thursday, October 15
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 198, toss-ups 12. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 20 seats short of the 218 needed.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 45, toss-ups 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4.
What early voting is telling us
What drove the changes
House MN-01 moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Decision Desk HQ moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 12 new polls and 8 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Wednesday, October 14
Bottom line The Senate moved toward Democrats with Republicans −1, toss-ups +1; the House and the governors’ races are unchanged.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 198, toss-ups 12. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 20 seats short of the 218 needed.
Senate Moved toward Democrats. Republicans fell from 46 to 45 and toss-ups rose from 7 to 8. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 6 seats short of the 51 needed, compared with 5 short before.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4.
What drove the changes
Senate Kansas Senate moved from Lean R to Toss-up, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Split Ticket moved its rating from Lean R to Toss-up.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 8 new polls and 5 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Tuesday, October 13
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 198, toss-ups 12. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 20 seats short of the 218 needed.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 46, toss-ups 7. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 5 seats short of the 51 needed.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4.
What drove the changes
House OH-15 moved from Likely R to Lean R, a shift toward Democrats that makes the race more competitive, after Fox News moved its rating from Likely R to Lean R.
Senate Minnesota Senate moved from Likely D to Lean D, a shift toward Republicans that makes the race more competitive, after Fox News moved its rating from Likely D to Lean D.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 8 new polls and 12 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.
Monday, October 12
Bottom line No change in any of the three forecasts since the last update.
House No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 225, Republicans 198, toss-ups 12. Majority math Democrats are 7 seats above the 218 needed, and Republicans are 20 seats short of the 218 needed.
Senate No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 47, Republicans 46, toss-ups 7. Majority math Democrats are 4 seats short of the 51 needed, and Republicans are 5 seats short of the 51 needed.
Governors No change since the last update. Standing at Democrats 24, Republicans 22, toss-ups 4.
Elsewhere in the tight races, 6 new polls and 2 individual rater moves didn’t change any race’s rating.